India and the US appear to be edging closer to a limited trade deal, but officials on both sides are signalling that it will be signed only when it is “fair, equitable and balanced”, making an exact timeline hard to pin down despite intense speculation online.
The proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) is structured in phases, with a first tranche focused on resolving tariff issues and improving market access. Washington currently levies tariffs of up to 50% on several Indian goods, including a 25% “reciprocal” duty and an additional 25% linked to India’s Russian oil purchases, and New Delhi is pushing for these to be rolled back to more competitive levels.
In return, India is prepared to cut import duties on over 80% of goods while ring‑fencing sensitive sectors like agriculture, fisheries and small industry.
Officials say six rounds of talks have already been completed, with most elements of Phase 1 negotiated virtually in recent months.
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal and his team held intensive discussions in Washington in October, and both sides have spoken of a broad goal to more than double bilateral trade to around 500 billion dollars by 2030 from about 191 billion dollars at present.
The first phase is officially targeted for closure by “fall 2025”, but leaders insist the announcement will be made only on a mutually agreed date.
What is international media saying?
Major international outlets frame the talks as part of a wider strategic reset after a bruising tariff war. Coverage in global business media highlights how India’s relatively resilient domestic economy and its ability to diversify exports have given New Delhi more leeway to hold out for better terms instead of rushing into a compromise.
Analysts quoted abroad stress that while political will exists in both capitals, trust was damaged by the sudden imposition of steep US tariffs, meaning any agreement is likely to be incremental and heavily legal‑vetted rather than a dramatic “big bang” deal.
At the same time, US approval of nearly 93 million dollars in arms sales to India and a recently deepened defence cooperation framework are being read internationally as signs that the broader relationship remains on an upward trajectory despite trade frictions.
Commentaries also note that domestic politics, from farmer concerns in India over greater US agricultural access to American unease about jobs and offshoring, could still slow the timetable even if negotiators are technically close to a package.
So when can a deal happen?
Social media chatter that a deal is “any day now” captures only part of the picture: Indian ministers have openly said “good news” could come tomorrow, next month or even next year, depending on whether core red lines are respected. In practical terms, officials on both sides are working towards sealing the first, tariff‑centric tranche by late 2025, but New Delhi’s “ready to wait” posture means the agreement will not be announced merely to satisfy speculation unless it clearly advances long‑term economic and strategic goals.