As Bihar concluded the final phase of its high-stakes Assembly elections, the spotlight is once again on Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj Party, but not for the reasons he might have hoped.
The famed political strategist, who turned politician with promises of change, had often described his party’s chances with one phrase: “Arsh pe ya farsh pe” — meaning it would either soar to great heights or hit rock bottom.
According to the exit polls released after the second phase of voting, it appears that Kishor’s outfit is struggling closer to the latter. Early projections from all six major agencies, Dainik Bhaskar, Matrize, People’s Insight, People’s Pulse, JVC, and P-Marq, suggest a strong victory for the ruling NDA, a setback for the opposition Mahagathbandhan, and a near washout for Jan Suraaj.
Five of these six surveys have predicted that the Jan Suraaj Party might not win even a single seat or may max go up to 3 seats, despite fielding candidates in nearly all of Bihar’s 243 constituencies, more than any other party.
The predictions place Kishor’s ambitious debut in a difficult light, hinting that his message of grassroots transformation may not have resonated widely with voters this time.
However, political analysts and even pollsters themselves caution against reading too much into these numbers. Exit polls have often been off the mark in Bihar’s complex political landscape, where caste arithmetic, regional loyalties, and last-minute swings can defy predictions.
Still, if these projections hold true, Prashant Kishor’s experiment with Jan Suraaj could mark one of the most humbling electoral debuts in recent memory.