Bihar exit poll: Will predictions hold this time, unlike 2020? What happened in last election
As Bihar awaits the official results of its 2025 Assembly elections, the exit polls have projected a clear lead for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. If these predictions hold true, the NDA is likely to form the government once again, leaving the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan trailing behind in a fiercely fought contest.
NDA maintains edge in exit polls
According to the survey by Peoples Pulse, the NDA is predicted to win between 133 and 159 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member Assembly. The Mahagathbandhan, which includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, is projected to secure 75 to 101 seats.
A separate exit poll by People’s Insight also indicates a clear edge for the BJP-JD(U) combine. The BJP is expected to win 68–72 seats, while the JD(U) may bag 55–60. On the opposition side, RJD could get 65–72 seats, and the Congress between 9 and 13.
The Jan Suraaj Party, launched by poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, appears to have made little electoral impact. Most pollsters suggest the new outfit may win anywhere between zero and five seats, despite contesting across nearly all constituencies.
What happened in 2020? Exit polls vs actual results
The 2020 Bihar elections offered a reminder that exit polls can often miss the mark. Back then, most surveys had predicted a narrow edge for the Mahagathbandhan led by the RJD and Congress, expecting an anti-incumbency wave against Nitish Kumar’s government.
However, the actual results defied these forecasts. The NDA won 125 seats, forming the government once again, while the Mahagathbandhan finished with 110 seats. The RJD did emerge as the single-largest party with 75 seats, but fell short of a majority.
In that election, the BJP secured 74 seats, the JD(U) 43, and smaller allies like the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) bagged four each. Among the opposition, the Congress managed 19, and the CPI(ML)-Liberation performed notably with 12.
Why exit polls can go wrong
Bihar’s complex social and political landscape often makes it difficult for exit polls to capture the real pulse of voters. In 2020, predictions of a strong anti-incumbency wave against Nitish Kumar proved misleading. Similarly, in 2015, the exit polls had predicted a close fight but underestimated the Mahagathbandhan’s landslide, which eventually secured 178 seats.
This time too, experts have urged caution, reminding that caste arithmetic, last-minute swings, and local issues can lead to surprising outcomes.
All eyes on November 14
As counting day approaches, the focus will be on whether Nitish Kumar can secure another term and how much ground Tejashwi Yadav’s alliance can retain. For Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, these results could mark either the beginning of a long political journey or a reality check for Bihar’s newest contender.
If exit polls prove right, the NDA will once again script victory in Bihar, reaffirming Nitish Kumar’s enduring presence in the state’s political landscape.